US news: Bailout, Take II: What the Feds Do Next

By Rick Newman

OK, so that didn't work.
After a bunch of all-nighters in Washington and some premature back-slapping, we're right back where we were a couple of weeks ago, after Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy and the government lent AIG $85 billion. There's no one-size-fits-all bailout plan, after all. That $700 billion in taxpayer money remains under lock and key. Glum investors are now the ones bailing out, fleeing stocks and bonds and seeking safer ground.

But there are still some levers the government can pull. Working through the mess just won't be as orderly or predictable as it would if there were a single plan and a big pot of money. Here's what's likely to happen next:

Another try at a big bailout plan. A lot of those constituents who have been calling Congress to complain about rescuing fat cats are going to rethink their indignation as they watch the stock markets--and their own portfolios--sink. Lawmakers who voted against the bailout plan are going to have to explain why they're letting the markets collapse. The more uncomfortable voters get, the more likely Congress will be to pass some kind of sweeping relief plan. This is far from over.

More piecemeal bailouts. Before the big $700 billion bailout plan even existed, the Fed and the Treasury Department were already patching leaks in the financial system--one trouble spot at a time. The idea behind an umbrella bailout plan was to overhaul the whole system, establishing public standards and treating every ailing company more or less the same, before a bunch of leaks became a gusher. That would have eliminated the guesswork over whether a struggling company meets the criteria for a rescue--like AIG--or falls short, like Lehman Brothers.

Now we're back to guessing. The feds still have the wherewithal to lend money, buy bad assets, or take other measures to keep ailing companies afloat. What they don't have is a single plan that applies to all companies and the authority to soak up vast amounts of bad assets. So those weekend meetings at the New York Fed, with supplicant CEOs pleading for help, are likely to continue.

More failed companies. Duke University finance Prof. Campbell Harvey predicts there could be 750 to 1,000 bank failures over the next six months because of billions in bad assets stemming from the housing meltdown. Scarce credit also threatens other types of companies that are already struggling and desperately need capital, such as the Detroit automakers and some of the airlines. The government will be able to deal with some of those companies one at a time, but without a comprehensive plan, others will fall through the cracks.

Manic markets. Investors were hoping that a big bailout plan would offer some predictability about how the government will deal with struggling companies. Their crystal ball is once again very dark. That means wild swings in stock prices as big investors try to get out of the market ahead of bad news, and get back in if it looks like the feds will ride to the rescue. One of the most volatile sectors is likely to be regional bank stocks as investors worry that banks like Sovereign Bancorp and National City might be the next to fail.

Patchwork regulation. There's already a system in place for dealing with failed banks--led by the FDIC--but that may not be enough to handle the damage that's unfolding. Even without a big bailout bill, Congress may have to set up a new agency to deal with dozens or hundreds of bank failures, one similar to the Resolution Trust Corp. formed in the late 1980s. We could see a whole slew of lesser regulations, too, like restrictions on certain lending practices and higher federal coverage limits on bank deposits.

Continued government intervention. The Federal Reserve continues to pump huge sums of money into the global banking system in a desperate effort to prompt banks to loosen their grip on loans to companies, consumers, and one another. For now, that seems to be having little effect as banks absorb the startling news from Washington and hunker down. That may lead the Fed to pump out even more money and take other important steps, like cutting interest rates. Sooner or later, that will probably help loosen things up. Until then, however, it's apparently up to the markets to fix themselves. Plan accordingly.

News from yahoo.us

US news: Bailout bill slapped aside; record stock plunge

By Julie Hirschfeld Davis, Associated Press Writer
House slaps aside bailout bill in stunning defeat; stocks plunge record 777; new try pledged

WASHINGTON (AP) -- In a vote that shook the government, Wall Street and markets around the world, the House on Monday defeated a $700 billion emergency rescue for the nation's financial system, leaving both parties' lawmakers and the Bush administration scrambling to pick up the pieces. Dismayed investors sent the Dow Jones industrials plunging 777 points, the most ever for a single day.

"We need to put something back together that works," a grim-faced Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said after he and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke joined in an emergency strategy session at the White House. On Capitol Hill, Democratic leaders said the House would reconvene Thursday, leaving open the possibility that it could salvage a reworked version.

Senate leaders showed no inclination to try to bring the measure to a vote before they could determine its fate in the House.

All sides agreed the effort to bolster beleaguered financial markets, potentially the biggest government intervention since the Great Depression, could not be abandoned.

But in a remarkable display on Monday, a majority of House members slapped aside the best version their leaders and the administration had been able to come up with, bucking presidential speeches, pleading visits from Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and urgent warnings that the economy could nosedive without the legislation.

In the face of thousands of phone calls and e-mails fiercely opposing the measure, many lawmakers were not willing to take the political risk of voting for it just five weeks before the elections.

The bill went down, 228-205.

The House Web site was overwhelmed as millions of people sought information about the measure through the day.

The legislation the administration promoted would have allowed the government to buy bad mortgages and other sour assets held by troubled banks and other financial institutions. Getting those debts off their books should bolster those companies' balance sheets, making them more inclined to lend and ease one of the biggest choke points in a national credit crisis. If the plan worked, the thinking went, it would help lift a major weight off the national economy, which is already sputtering.

Hoping to pick up enough GOP votes for the next try, Republicans floated several ideas. One would double the $100,000 ceiling on federal deposit insurance. Another would end rules that require companies to devalue assets on their books to reflect the price they could get in the market.

In the meantime, Paulson said he would work with other regulators "to use all the tools available to protect our financial system and our economy."

"Our tool kit is substantial but insufficient," he said, indicating the government intended to continue piecemeal fixes while pressing Congress for broader action.

Stocks started plummeting on Wall Street even before Monday's vote was over, as traders watched the rescue measure going down on television. Meanwhile, lawmakers were watching them back.

As a digital screen in the House chamber recorded a cascade of "no" votes against the bailout, Democratic Rep. Joe Crowley of New York shouted news of the falling Dow Jones industrials. "Six hundred points!" he yelled, jabbing his thumb downward.

The final stock carnage far surpassed the 684-point drop on the first trading day after the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks.

In the House, "no" votes came from both the Democratic and Republican sides of the aisle. More than two-thirds of Republicans and 40 percent of Democrats opposed the bill. Several Democrats in close election fights waited until the last moment, then went against the bill as it became clear the vast majority of Republicans were opposing it.

Thirteen of the 19 most vulnerable Republicans and Democrats in an Associated Press analysis voted against the bill despite the pleas from President Bush and their party leaders to pass it.

In all, 65 Republicans joined 140 Democrats in voting "yes," while 133 Republicans and 95 Democrats voted "no."

The overriding question was what to do next.

"The legislation may have failed; the crisis is still with us," said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., in a news conference after the defeat. "What happened today cannot stand."

Republican leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, the minority leader, said he and other Republicans were pained to back the measure, but in light of the potential consequences for the economy and all Americans, "We need to renew our efforts to find a solution that Congress can support."

Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., said there was scant time to reopen legislation that was the product of hard-fought bipartisan negotiations.

"What happened today was not a failure of a bill, it was a failure of will," said Dodd, the Banking Committee chairman. "Our hope is that cooler heads will prevail, people will think about what they did today and recognize that this is not just scare tactics -- it's reality."

A brutal round of partisan finger-pointing followed the vote.

Republicans blamed Pelosi's scathing speech near the close of the debate -- which assailed Bush's economic policies and a "right-wing ideology of anything goes, no supervision, no discipline, no regulation" of financial markets -- for the defeat. It was not much different from her usual tough words against the president and his party.

"We could have gotten there today had it not been for the partisan speech that the speaker gave on the floor of the House," Boehner said.

Rep. Roy Blunt, R-Mo., the whip, estimated that Pelosi's speech changed the minds of a dozen Republicans who might otherwise have supported the plan.

That amounted to an appalling accusation by Republicans against Republicans, said Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., chairman of the Financial Services Committee: "Because somebody hurt their feelings, they decide to punish the country."

More than a repudiation of Democrats, Frank said, Republicans' refusal to vote for the bailout was a rejection of their own president.

Indeed, many GOP lawmakers spurned Bush's urgent calls for action. "We have a gun to our head," said Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite, R-Fla., who opposed the bill. "This isn't legislation -- it's extortion."

The two men campaigning to replace Bush watched the situation closely -- from afar -- and demanded action.

In Iowa, Republican John McCain said his rival Barack Obama and congressional Democrats "infused unnecessary partisanship into the process. Now is not the time to fix the blame; it's time to fix the problem."

Obama said, "Democrats, Republicans, step up to the plate, get it done."

Lawmakers were under extraordinary pressure from powerful outside groups, which gave notice they considered the legislation a "key vote" -- one they would consider when rating members of Congress.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce said opponents of the bailout would pay for their stance.

"Make no mistake: When the aftermath of congressional inaction becomes clear, Americans will not tolerate those who stood by and let the calamity happen," said R. Bruce Josten, the Chamber's top lobbyist, in a letter to members.

The conservative Club for Growth made a similar threat to supporters of the bailout.

"We're all worried about losing our jobs," Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., declared in an impassioned speech in support of the bill before the vote. "Most of us say, 'I want this thing to pass, but I want you to vote for it -- not me.'"

"We're in this moment, and if we fail to do the right thing, Heaven help us," he said.

If Congress doesn't come around on a bailout, more pressure would fall on the Federal Reserve.

The Fed, which has been providing billions in short-term loans to squeezed banks to help them overcome credit stresses, could keep expanding those loans to encourage lending. And, it could keep working with other central banks to inject billions into financial markets overseas.

It also has the power to expand emergency lending to other types of companies and even to individuals if they are unable to secure adequate credit.

Post from yahoo.us

銀行拆借幾陷停頓 專家﹕全球瀕「系統性崩潰」

(明報)9月26日 星期五 05:05
【明報專訊】全國主要金融市場的銀根昨進一步抽緊，銀行與銀行間的拆借活動已陷入接近停頓狀態。專家指出，目前全球金融市場出現「系統性崩潰的風險很高」。同一天，各大央行 再向市場注入資金，以紓解緊絀的銀根。反映銀根鬆緊的銀行同業拆息，昨均在多個主要金融市場大幅抽升。昨晚歐洲1個月拆息升至近8年新高，亞洲地區銀行拆息也超越雷曼破產時的水平。
美救市方案未明 歐1月拆息8年新高
市場昨日一大關注點，是美國 救市方案的規模會否被國會縮減。在救市方案存在不明朗因素下，倫敦 銀行同業的3個月美元 拆息（Libor）昨晚抽升29個基點至3.77厘，為1999年以來最高，與美國聯儲局 目標利率（2厘）的利息差距更是歷來最高水平。1個月期的歐元銀行同業拆息（Euribor）昨日也上升7個基點至4.98厘，遠高於1周前的4.52，也是2000年11月以來的新高。
拆息高企反映銀行之間的借貸已陷入接近停頓的狀態。荷銀外匯策略師Greg Gibbs說﹕「目前全球金融系統崩潰的風險已進入新階段，而各國央行對此顯得束手無策。同時，銀行季尾對資金需求大增，也令（信貸緊張）問題惡化。」
至於亞太區，除了香港外，新加坡 和澳洲 的拆息水平也被大幅扯高。新加坡3個月期的美元銀行同業拆息昨日急升29個基點至3.684厘，為1月22日以來最高。澳洲金融市場協會1個月銀行券參考利率（BBSW）則急升至7.458厘，為8月5日以來的最高水平。
面對拆息高企問題，全球各大央行繼續向銀行體系注資，試圖紓緩銀根。聯儲局周三再通過外匯掉期向澳洲、丹麥、挪威和瑞典 提供300億美元資金，而歐洲央行、英倫銀行和日本 央行也繼續「放水」。

歐洲雷曼追母公司80億美元

(明報)9月22日 星期一 13:55
雷曼兄弟公司的歐洲子公司日前提出申請，要求總部退還申請破產前幾天轉入的80多億美元 資金。
報道稱，這筆資金轉賬屬於歐洲子公司與美國 總部之間每個周末時段交易的一部分。本月12日，歐洲子公司將80多億美元資金存入總部賬戶，但在周一，即15日開市前，總部已決定申請破產保護，沒有按照慣例將資金退還。
負責雷曼歐洲業務審計工作的普華永道會計師事務所英國 分部一名女發言人說，當雷曼兄弟控股公司申請破產時，這些本屬於英國方面的資金沒有按時退還。歐洲子公司希望，雷曼在北美的銀行業務被英國巴克萊銀行收購前，這筆資金能夠返還。
這名女發言人說，索還資金的申請於17日發出。負責雷曼破產申請的威嘉國際律師事務所21日拒絕回應這一要求。
英國首相白高敦 接受英國廣播公司 採訪時說，英美兩國政府正就退還資金一事進行磋商。雖然歐洲子公司轉賬資金是英國方面犯下的錯誤，但導致全球金融動盪的責任主要在美方。

大摩高盛變身傳統投行消失

(明報)9月22日 星期一 13:30

隨美國 投資銀行摩根士丹利及高盛公司獲批准變身為銀行控股公司，華爾街傳統投資銀行將宣告消失。
美國聯儲局發表聲明稱，同意高盛和摩根士丹利成為銀行控股公司的申請，只待依法完成五日的反壟斷觀察期。
聲明指出，兩間公司轉型銀行控股公司架構管理資金之際，為提高流動性支援，聯儲局理事會已授權紐約區聯邦儲備銀行給予高盛和摩根士丹利的證券自營子公司信用額度。
大摩與高盛在獲得批准後，即可成立商業銀行，接受存戶存款，並可獲得聯儲局的緊急貸款。
美國華爾街著名的投資銀行的傳統經營模式，將徹底改變，大摩及高盛均需接受傳統銀行的嚴密監管。

美國豪擲5.5萬億元救市

(星島)9月21日 星期日 05:30

(綜合報道)

(星島日報 報道)美國 推出自一九二九年大衰退以來，最大的一次救市方案，涉及的規模達七千億美元 ，即五萬四千六百億港元。美國政府更會將國債法定上限調升百分之六點六，至十一萬三千億美元，配合救市所需。港股在美國報價受到方案刺激，藍籌股價普遍上升，單以主要股份計，已相當於恒生指數上升三百點。

　　財經組記者

　　雖然美國推出救市措施，環球股市大反彈，但滙豐銀行亞太區業務策略及經濟顧問梁兆基認為，股市反彈缺乏基礎因素支持，後市仍會繼續波動，呼籲投資者小 心。他指出，全球市場風高浪急，等同刮十號風球，投資者最好不要再到海灘玩滑浪，基本上現在是因為湧現大量「冚倉」盤，到指數狂飆，若投資者並不是損失太 大時，應盡量離場，靜待市場變得穩定才入市。

　　市場波動如十號風

　　滙業證券研究主管熊麗萍預料，港股明天開市將上升七百至八百點，即可升至二萬零一百點水平。她認為，港股周五已經大幅上升百分之九點六，很大程度已經 將美國救市方案的刺激反映，若要再升，相信短期在二萬一千點會有很大阻力。尚可看好的股份除了金融股之後，還包括落後的藍籌股，以及資源類股份。油價及金 價回升，對相關股份亦有上升作用。十月期油周五升百分之七，收報每桶一○四點五五美元，金價報每盎司八七三美元，升百分之二點七。

　　全球受惠 杜指兩日升778點

　　美國財長保爾森和聯儲局 主席伯南克 上周五公布正制訂救市方案，主要是會買入美國金融機構的有問題按揭證券，以將這些證券從企業的帳目中剔除。方案有利減低銀行的不良資產，加上禁止股市沽空活動，令杜瓊斯工業平均指數 上周五升三百六十八點，連同周四的四百一十點升幅，兩天合計共升七百七十八點，為八年以來最大兩日累計升幅，並帶動全球股市報捷，包括英股呈歷來最大單日升幅。

　　杜指周五收報一一三八八點，升百分之三點四，全周計跌百分之零點三；標準普爾五百指數和納斯達克綜合指數 上周五也分別錄得百分之四和百分之三點四升幅。反映廿三個已發展國家的MSCI世界股指飆升百分之五點七，亞洲和歐洲的股市則分別呈百分之五點五和破紀錄的八點三升幅。MSCI新興市場股指亦升一成，為一九八七年該指數成立以來最大升幅。

　　布殊 ：必須挽回市場信心

　　據《紐約 時 報》報道，救巿方案涉及七千億美元。總統布殊在白宮記者會之中指出，救市規模大，是因為要解決次按及金融市場信心不穩，他憂慮金融市場困難會在整個經濟體 系激起浪潮，而影響普遍美國國民。他又指人們正開始對美國的金融體系提出疑問，而且失去信心，他指目前最重要是挽回對金融市場的信心。若該方案獲得國會通 過，則美國財長擁有廣泛權力，可購入有毒按揭（即次按）相關資產而不須再尋求立法通過。

　　有專家估計救市方案將達一萬億美元，保爾森本周末會致力與國會領袖商討方案的詳細內容。此舉足以撫平投資者的憂慮，紓緩他們擔心因錯押按揭投資而拖垮金融企業以致破壞銀行體系和整體經濟。

　　美國政府又呼籲議員支持保爾森的救市方案。但有民主黨 議員要求救市方案能包括救助次按危機影響的業主。

　　眾議院多數派領袖霍耶則稱，眾院最快本周初就救市方案投票通過。但有論者批評方案長遠會改變美國金融體系的性質。

巴克萊120億成功購雷曼

(星島)9月21日 星期日 05:30

(綜合報道)

(星島日報 報道)美國 法院昨日以迅雷不及掩耳的速度，通過將雷曼兄弟在美國物業及業務出售予英國 第三大銀行巴克萊，涉及作價為十五億四千萬美元 ，即一百二十億港元，較以往估計為細。

　　中大財務學系副教授蘇偉文認為，即使雷曼獲巴克萊購入，也未必保證債券持有人可以取回資金，因為公司破產出售所得資金，首先是由清盤人及政府獲得，剩下的才按比例及優先次序分給其他債權人。

　　根據會計業內人士指出，雷曼目前的債券之中，以高級債券收回部分投資的機會為高，但也只能收回六成至八成，即投資一百萬元只能收回六十萬元。目前內地銀行股直接持有雷曼債券達到六億八千五百萬美元，尚未計理財產品的相關雷曼債券。

　　次級債券或全數撇清

　　蘇偉文認為，香港投資者持有的迷你債券，不是直接由雷曼發行，而且債券價值其實要視乎信託人有否擁有相關的資產，因此索償而能追回資產的情況，與雷曼高級債券是兩回事。雷曼高級債券未只於「渣都無」，但次級而又無擔保的債券則接近要全數撇清。

　　巴克萊購入的雷曼資產，其實主要是雷曼位於紐約 曼哈頓的總部，以及位於新澤西的兩個數據中心，涉及價值共十二億九千萬美元，巴克萊原先是商討以十五億元購入該些物業，但經過估值及討價還價之後，最終調低交易價。另外，巴克萊也以二億五千萬元購入雷曼美國業務，交易能為雷曼九千名員工保留職位。 財經組記者

$700B rescue plan may not save some troubled banks

By Stevenson Jacobs, AP Business Writer Government's $700 billion plan to buy bad mortgages may not save some troubled banks NEW YORK (AP) -- A sweeping government plan to buy up to $700 billion in bad mortgages may not be enough to save some banks, which experts say may be forced to absorb big losses if they sell their troubled assets.

The proposal for the government to soak up the mortgage-backed securities would be the biggest bailout plan since the Great Depression, but experts say a critical issue will be how much it actually pays for the troubled assets.

How the government might acquire banks' toxic debt is still being ironed out, but one approach suggested by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson involves a process under which financial institutions would propose a price for their mortgage-backed securities and the government would choose the lowest bids.

If banks sell at the proposed price -- say 50 cents on the dollar -- accounting rules would require firms to take the losses on their balance sheets before getting the damaged assets off their books. For weaker banks buffeted by the deepening credit crisis, the losses may hinder their ability to go out raise capital, make loans and ultimately stay afloat, according to industry experts.

"There is a risk that there will be bank failures to come," said Vincent R. Reinhart, former director of the Federal Reserve's monetary affairs division.

While the reverse auctions could help banks set a clearing price for mortgage-related assets, Reinhart said, that "price doesn't mean that every financial firm will be solvent" after those assets are sold.

Another risk is that if the auctions set too low a price for mortgage-related assets, other institutions with bad debt may be forced to take the distressed valuation onto their books under mark-to-market accounting rules, Reinhart said. Mark-to-market rules involve adjusting the price of an asset to reflect its current market value.

"If the auctions don't go well, it will drag down everybody's balance sheet who marks to market," Reinhart said.

The financial system has been battered by $500 billion in losses from the mortgage mess, and the International Monetary Fund has estimated the price tag could ultimately top $1 trillion.

The crisis has forced 11 federally insured banks and thrifts into failure this year. Another 117 banks and thrifts were considered to be in trouble in the second quarter -- the highest level since 2003 -- with the total assets of troubled banks tripling to $78 billion, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The agency does not disclose which institutions are on its list, but on average, 13 percent of banks that make the list fail.

Christopher Whalen, senior vice president and managing director of Institutional Risk Analytics, has predicted that 110 banks with assets worth $850 billion are in danger of failing by next summer. He said the Treasury Department's rescue plan hasn't given him reason to be more optimistic.

"If the government comes in and buys these assets at a discount and you're a strong bank, you don't care because you're getting cash and you go off and do business. If you're a weak bank and you take a big hit, you may not have that option," Whalen said.

He said the government may decide that the only option to save some banks is to pay full price for the assets in exchange for equity, which could be sold later.

But that could be risky because if the government pays too high a price, it will be difficult if not impossible to go out and sell the assets for a profit in the future, meaning any losses incurred would be absorbed by taxpayers. But paying too little also is problematic because banks will be forced to take steeper losses that they may not be able to recover from.

"The government should be able to arrange to pick a price that helps the banks but also that allow the government to turn around and make a profit down the line," said Marvin Goodfriend, professor of economics at Carnegie Mellon University.

標普兩天升8.6% 38年最勁 受惠連番救市兼限金融股沽空

(明報)9月21日 星期日 05:10

【明報專訊】美國 政府周五晚上宣布新救市方案及暫時限制799隻金融股的沽空活動，為環球股市注入強心針，標普500指數在金融股帶動下周五大漲4%，兩天計則升8.6％，是38年來最大的兩天升幅，歐洲、加拿大 以至新興市場周五的升幅均是20年以來最大。

美國三大指數大幅反彈，道瓊斯 工 業指數升368點，收市報11388點；標普500指數升48點，收市報1255點；納斯達克指數升74點，收市報2273點。美國周五晚公布救市方案， 包括設立機構購入金融機構不良資產、為貨幣基金作擔保以及限制投資者沽空金融股，美股獲得明顯支持，金融板塊在對冲基金大舉平淡倉下，摩根士丹利 及高盛股價分別揚升21%及20%；美林 證券股價則揚34%；富國銀行及U.S Bankcorp更創下歷史新高。

淡友平倉 金融股升勢如虹

「華府及監管機構致力恢復投資者信心，及時除去了市場恐懼。」貝萊德集團首席投資總監Robert Doll表示﹕「救市措施在心理上有正面作用，短期內會有效」。德盛安聯歐洲首席投資總監Neil Dwane則表示﹕「金融股的最壞的氣氛已經過去。」

Zulauf：減債過程漫長 只宜買國債

不過，Zulauf資產管理公司創辦人Felix Zulauf則較為悲觀，他表示，投資市場正由高負債年代進入減債年代，過往在環球信貸市場上投資銀行製造了大量的游資，現時進入回歸正常階段，這會是一 個十分痛苦的過程，會很深及較一般人預期為長，他只會買2年以下年期的國債，不會涉足股市。

歐洲股市亦全面向上。英國 富時指數431點，收報5311點；法國 CAC指數升367點，收市報4324點，均是自1987年股災以來最大升幅。德國 DAX指數亦升326點，收報6189點。受信貸危機困擾的瑞銀集團，於華府措施公布後，股價急彈32%。英國監管機構限制金融類股份沽空，巴克萊銀行股價回升29%。

美林：把問題資產放進救生艇

美林歐洲資產管理部總監Gary Dugan就指出﹕「現在，投資者認為每家金融機構也會納入華府的救市計劃內，並可把問題資產放在即將建立的『救生艇』上。」

新興市場方面，兩日內注入200億美元 資金的俄羅斯 ，主要指數上升29%，扭轉自1998年該國金融危機以來的劣境。巴西 及 墨西哥股市則分別漲9.6%及4.6%。Baillie Gifford Overseas新興市場基金經理Edward Hocknell回應華府救市措施時表示﹕「把壞資產放在另一個口袋裏，是把它剔走的一個關鍵，當投資者從極度恐懼中走出來後，他們會把目光轉投新興市 場，這些市場估值挺廉宜。」

Bush team, Congress negotiate $700B bailout

By JULIE HIRSCHFELD DAVIS and DEB RIECHMANN, Associated Press Writers Sat Sep 20, 7:52 PM ET

WASHINGTON - The Bush administration asked Congress on Saturday for the power to buy $700 billion in toxic assets clogging the financial system and threatening the economy as negotiations began on the largest bailout since the Great Depression.

The rescue plan would give Washington broad authority to purchase bad mortgage-related assets from U.S. financial institutions for the next two years. It does not specify which institutions qualify or what, if anything, the government would get in return for the unprecedented infusion.

Democrats are pressing to require that the plan help more strapped borrowers stay in their homes and to condition the bailout on new limits on executive compensation.

Congressional aides and administration officials are working through the weekend to fill in the details of the proposal. The White House hoped for a deal with Congress by the time markets opened Monday; top lawmakers say they would push to enact the plan as early as the coming week.

"We're going to work with Congress to get a bill done quickly," President Bush said at the White House. Without discussing specifics, he said, "This is a big package because it was a big problem."

The proposal is a mere three pages long, but it gives sweeping powers to the government to dispense gigantic sums of taxpayer dollars in a program that would be sheltered from court review.

"It's a rather brief bill with a lot of money," said Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., the Banking Committee chairman. "We understand the importance of the anticipation in the markets, but we also know that what we're doing is going to have consequences for decades to come. There's not a second act to this — we've got to get this right."

Lawmakers digesting the eye-popping cost and searching for specifics voiced concerns that the proposal offers no help for struggling homeowners or safeguards for taxpayers' money.

The government must bail out the financial system "because if we don't, it will have a tremendous impact on American consumers, homeowners, taxpayers and the rest," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said in San Francisco.

But, she added, "We cannot deal with this unless this bailout helps families stay in their homes."

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev. said "we cannot allow ourselves to be in denial about the threat now facing the world economy. From all indications, that threat is real, and the consequences of inaction could be catastrophic. Every single American has a stake in preventing a global financial meltdown."

The proposal would raise the statutory limit on the national debt from $10.6 trillion to $11.3 trillion to make room for the massive rescue.

"The American people are furious that we're in this situation, and so am I," the House's top Republican, Ohio Rep. John A. Boehner, said in a statement. "We need to do everything possible to protect the taxpayers from the consequences of a broken Washington."

Signaling what could erupt into a brutal fight with Democrats over add-on spending, Boehner said "efforts to exploit this crisis for political leverage or partisan quid pro quo will only delay the economic stability that families, seniors, and small businesses deserve."

Bush said he worried the financial troubles "could ripple throughout" the economy and affect average citizens. "The risk of doing nothing far outweighs the risk of the package. ... Over time, we're going to get a lot of the money back."

He added, "People are beginning to doubt our system, people were losing confidence and I understand it's important to have confidence in our financial system."

Neither presidential candidate took a position on the proposal. GOP nominee John McCain said he was awaiting specifics and any changes by Congress.

Democratic rival Barack Obama used the party's weekly radio address to call for help for Main Street as well as Wall Street.

Their language reflected a tricky balance that politicians in both parties are trying to strike, just six weeks before Election Day: Back a plan that doles out hundreds of billions to companies that made bad bets and still identify with the plight of middle-class voters.

Besides mortgage help and executive compensation limits, Democrats are considering attaching middle-class assistance to the legislation despite a request from Bush to avoid adding items that could delay action. An expansion of jobless benefits was one possibility.

Bush sidestepped questions about the chances of adding such items, saying that now was not the time for posturing. "I think most leaders would understand we need to get this done quickly, and you know, the cleaner the better," he said about legislation being drafted.

Treasury officials met congressional staff for about two hours on Capitol Hill on Saturday. Discussions centered on how the plan would work, and Democrats proposed adding the executive compensation limits and new foreclosure-prevention measures. Details of those changes were not available Saturday. Bush and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson conferred by phone for about 20 minutes in the afternoon, gauging how the negotiations were unfolding.

Among the key issues up for negotiation is which financial institutions would be eligible for the help. The proposed legislation doesn't make it clear, leaving open the question of whether hedge funds or pension funds could qualify.

On Saturday night, Treasury released a fact sheet stating that eligible financial institutions "must have significant operations in the U.S." unless Paulson determines, after consulting with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, that "broader eligibility is necessary to effectively stabilize financial markets."

The proposal does not require that the government receive anything from banks in return for unloading their bad assets. But it would allow Treasury to designate financial institutions as "agents of the government," and mandate that they perform any "reasonable duties" that might entail.

The government could contract with private companies to manage the assets it purchased under the rescue.

Paulson says the government would in essence set up reverse auctions, putting up money for a class of distressed assets — such as loans that are delinquent but not in default — and financial institutions would compete for how little they would accept.

油價周五急升逾6%

(明報)9月21日 星期日 05:10

【明報專訊】美國 政府連串的救市行動，不單令股市受惠，資金市場獲得紓緩，亦刺激油價周五漲了每桶6.45美元 ，收報103.33美元，升幅達6.6％。位於麻省的策略能源與經濟研究社總裁Michael Lynch表示，油市情緒趨向樂觀，這預料會持續一段時間，直至石油庫存見上升為止。

彭博通訊社向分析員進行的調查就顯示，有47％預料本周油價將繼續上揚，預期下跌的有33％，分析員傾向看好的原因是剛過去的颶風艾克影響墨西哥灣地區的石油生產，故預料本周的石油庫存仍會處於低水平。

颶風礙產量 助長升勢

墨西哥灣的產油設施在颶風過後，迄今只有11％石油產能復產，而復產的天然氣產能只有四分之一，因此，油價在供應上應有一定的支持。

此外，尼日利亞 的產油設施上周受到當地武裝分子威脅，每日產量減少了28萬桶，油公司皇家殼牌已因而提出盈利預警。

石油價格上漲之餘，金屬及農產品價格周五亦見上揚。期銅錄得一個月以來最大升幅，12月交收的期銅升了3.3％，報每磅3.1685美仙，市場憧憬 美國政府紓解信貸危機的措施，會令資金回流商品市場，小麥期貨周五升了3.6％，反映19種商品價格的路透社/Jefferies指數則升了2.6%。上 周早段因資金緊張，銅價與一眾商品價格都跟隨股市大瀉，資金流入國債市場避險。

布殊促撥七千億美元救市

(星島)9月21日 星期日 11:20

美國 總統喬治布殊 ，正式向國會提交方案，要求撥款七千億美元 ， 購入金融機構的問題房貸。根據方案，當局希望國會撥款七千億美元，令政府可以在未來兩年購入美國金融機構的房貸債項，並將國債上限，由十萬六千億美元提高 到十一萬三千億美元。總統喬治布殊表示，最初打算由市場自由運作，但當他明白到金融問題的嚴重性，就決定果斷地撥出緊急財政援助，希望國會可以盡快通過有 關撥款。控制參眾兩院的民主黨 ，指他們都希望可以盡快通過方案，但會動議作出修訂，例如要加強監管、限制參與收購公司行政人員的酬金，為業主提供支援等措施。

布殊再促國會通過美哥自由貿易協定

(星島)9月21日 星期日 10:08

美國 總統布殊 ２０ 日再次敦促美國國會通過美國與哥倫比亞之間的自由貿易協定，稱這一協定符合美國的經濟利益。布殊當天與來訪的哥倫比亞總統烏裏韋在白宮聯合舉行新聞發佈會 時說，繼續向鄰近國家特別是向哥倫比亞這樣一個正在成長的國家開放市場符合美國的經濟利益。他說，他一直在呼籲國會就兩國間的自由貿易協定進行投票，但始 終沒有結果。他敦促國會議員們重新考慮他們的立場。 美國與哥倫比亞之間的自由貿易協定簽署於２００６年１１月。據悉，目前哥倫比亞９０％以上的輸美產品已經免稅進入美國市場，但美國出口到哥倫比亞的產品仍 被徵收高達３５％的關稅。一旦這份自由貿易協定生效實施，哥倫比亞將立即免除超過８０％的美國工業和消費品的進口關稅，剩餘部分關稅也會隨著時間推移被全 部取消。美國與秘魯 、哥倫比亞、巴拿馬 和韓國 之間的自由貿易協定是布殊希望在明年初任期結束前得到國會批准的４個自由貿易協定。由於民主黨 堅持自由貿易協定中必須包含關於勞工權利和環境保護條款，這些協定遲遲未能獲得國會通過。

Another nightmare on Wall Street: Dow down 450

NEW YORK - The stock market took another nosedive Wednesday as the American banking system appeared even shakier and investors worried that the financial crisis is spinning so far out of control that even government rescues can't stop it.

The Dow Jones industrial average, which only two days earlier had suffered its steepest drop since the days after the Sept. 11 attacks, lost another 450 points. About $700 billion in investments vanished.
One day after the Federal Reserve stepped in with an emergency loan to keep American International Group Inc., one of the world's largest insurers, from going under, Wall Street wondered which companies might be the next to falter.
A major investor in ailing Washington Mutual Inc. removed a potential obstacle to a sale of the bank, and stock in two investment banks, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, was pummeled.
It was the fourth consecutive day of extraordinary turmoil for the American financial system, beginning with news on Sunday that another venerable investment house, Lehman Brothers, would be forced to file for bankruptcy.
The 4 percent drop Wednesday in the Dow reflected the stock market's first chance to digest the Fed's decision to rescue AIG with an $85 billion taxpayer loan that effectively gives it a majority stake in the company. AIG is important because it has essentially become a primary source of insurance for the entire financial industry.
As the stock market staggered, the price of gold, which rises in times of panic, spiked as much as $90.40 an ounce. Bonds, a traditional safe haven for investors, also climbed.
"The economy is not short of money. It is short of confidence," said Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at California State University.
The financial stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 dropped even more, falling 10 percent, and insurance that backs corporate debt soared for the last two surviving independent U.S. investment banks, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.
"It seems as though banks are hoarding cash, no matter what rate they could be lending it at," said David Rosenberg, North American economist at Merrill Lynch.
Markets around the world also tumbled, with stocks dropping from Hong Kong to London. Brazil's benchmark index saw the largest drop, losing nearly 7 percent in a day.
Worse, the short-term credit markets remained frozen, with overnight interest rates soaring for loans between banks and for overnight loans to businesses. Long-term loans, however, didn't rise as much.
"The worry on short-term loans is you're not sure who the ultimate borrower is," said Brian Bethune, chief U.S. economist at Global Insight Inc.
And in case anyone needed additional symbolism, a glass panel near the top of a Bank of America skyscraper in Midtown Manhattan fell more than 50 stories onto the street below and shattered. No injuries were reported.
In the United States, the faltering economy and banking system have begun to dominate conversations at dinner tables, bars and online, not to mention seizing the campaign trail.
One blogger, Michele Catalano of Long Island, posted this on Wednesday: "Dreamed about AIG and the stock market, woke up with the urge to stock up on canned goods and shotguns."
Mortgage rates, which had fallen after the government's takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, rose again, removing a glimmer of hope that the housing crisis, the kindling for the broader financial meltdown, was hitting bottom.
And new statistics showed that construction of new homes and apartments fell a surprising 6.2 percent in August to the weakest pace in 17 years.
The Treasury Department, for the first time in its history, said it would begin selling bonds for the Federal Reserve in an effort to help the central bank deal with its unprecedented borrowing needs.
Treasury officials said the action did not mean that the Fed was running short of cash, but simply was a way for the government to better manage its financing needs.
Separately, the Securities and Exchange Commission tightened rules on short selling, the practice of betting that a stock will fall.
A $62 billion money market fund _ Primary Fund from Reserve _ on Tuesday saw its holdings fall below its total deposits, a condition known as "breaking the buck" that hasn't happened to a money market fund since 1994, Rosenberg said. Money market funds are supposed to be conservatively invested and almost as safe as cash.
Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama appeared Wednesday in a two-minute commercial to outline his economic plans and caution it won't be easy to fix the nation's worsening financial problems.
"The truth is that while you've been living up to your responsibilities, Washington has not," he said.
Republican John McCain's running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, said of the AIG move: "It's understandable but very, very disappointing that taxpayers are called upon for another one."
The Dow fell 449.36 to 10,609.66, finishing near its lowest point of the trading day. The index is down more than 7 percent just this week and more than 25 percent since its record close less than a year ago, on Oct. 9, 2007.
Stock in Washington Mutual fell 13 percent, dropping 31 cents to $2.01 amid reports that the government was trying to find a buyer for the bank, which has been battered by bad home loans. It lost $3.3 billion in the second quarter.
Many economists worried about the unintended consequences of the Fed's actions.
"Every time that umbrella widens, it gets heavier and heavier for those holding it up _ which is the taxpayer," said Bernard Baumohl, chief economist at the Economic Outlook Group in Princeton, N.J.
"With most Americans now preoccupied about their own future job security, the one thing they do not want to hear is how they will end up paying the bill for poorly managed companies," he said.

Post from yahoo

美政府借六千八億救AIG

(明報)9月17日 星期三 12:30
美國 政府動用850億美元 ，拯救保險公司AIG，將獲得AIG近8成股權，以免其倒閉破壞全球金融市場。
美國聯儲局 發表聲明，由於AIG出現「凌亂失敗」，將可能打擊全球金融市場。聯儲局決定，在2年內借貸850億美元，即近6800億港元，利息採三個月期Libor加碼8.50個百分點，依照貸款餘額累計利息計算。
聯儲局聲明指出，AIG將以該集團和主要關係事業的所有資產作為擔保品。AIG來將利用該公司處分資產的收益償還貸款。美國政府將取得AIG 79.9%股權，並且享有普通股和特別股息發放的否決權。
聯儲局將會撤換AIG的管理層。

Post from yahoo.hk

AIA客戶須知

【明報專訊】■AIA保單成立形式，如果附設條款中有「bankruptcy remote」及用信託形式處理保單，萬一母公司進入破產程序，保險公司還是可以按照正常情况，因應客戶要求作日常賠償及退保等；若沒有這條款，當母公司進入破產程序，就算保單持有人要索償，也要全球一齊排隊，要排到何時則難說
■一般保險保單的受保人要索償或提取資金，主要看現金價值，供款期愈長現金價值愈大，故頭兩三年新做保單受保人受今次事件影響不大，「Cut單」與否要視乎個人情况
■現金價值屬高或者已差不多取回已供保費的受保人，如果「Cut單」，就可免萬一AIG破產而受到影響
■終止保單取回現金一般需時一個月，另一方法是使用持有的人壽保險單去貸款，保險公司貸款手續寬鬆，如購買有儲蓄成分的保險，毋須任何證明文件及抵押，已可借到不高於保單列明保金的金額

post from yahoo.hk

AIA保單持有人自救法

【明報專訊】■儲蓄保險
若供款多年，累積了一定水平現金紅利，美聯金融集團行政總裁施德芝建議「錢在身邊較安全」，現時最好終止保單取回保金；若只供了一兩年，現金價值不高，無論AIA是否「出事」，斷單的作用也不大
■醫療保險
萬一保險公司進入破產程序，所有保單持有人會成為債權人，要索償就要排隊申索，隨時要等一年半載。受保人若擔心中途遇上意外未獲賠償，最好先將醫療保險轉至第二間公司，但要留意須成功投保新保險公司及保單生效後才斷單，以防未能享有保障
■投資相連保險
尚乘財富策劃董事兼行政總裁曾慶璘坦言，投保人若押注在環球基金，當中又主打歐美等股票或債券，投資回報會受重創。不過，由於AIA只是扮演中介人、託管人角色，在今次事件中最不受影響，取不取回有關資金，要視乎投資者是否急於用錢，若在市况不好時沽出基金，將要承受投資損失

Post from yahoo.hk

Government announces $85 billion loan to save AIG

WASHINGTON - In a bid to save financial markets and economy from further turmoil, the U.S. government agreed Tuesday to provide an $85 billion emergency loan to rescue the huge insurer AIG. The Federal Reserve said in a statement it determined that a disorderly failure of AIG could hurt the already delicate financial markets and the economy.

It also could "lead to substantially higher borrowing costs, reduced household wealth and materially weaker economic performance," the Fed said.
"The President supports the agreement announced this evening by the Federal Reserve," said White House spokesman Tony Fratto. "These steps are taken in the interest of promoting stability in financial markets and limiting damage to the broader economy."
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the administration was working closely with the Fed, the Securities and Exchange Commission and other government regulators to "enhance the stability and orderliness of our financial markets and minimize the disruption to our economy."
"I support the steps taken by the Federal Reserve tonight to assist AIG in continuing to meet its obligations, mitigate broader disruptions and at the same time protect taxpayers," Paulson said in a statement.
The Fed said in return for the loan, the government will receive a 79.9 percent equity stake in AIG.
Earlier, Fed chairman Bernanke and Paulson met with Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., and House Republican leader John Boehner of Ohio, to brief them on the government's option.
"At the administration's request, I met this evening with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. They expressed the administration's views on the deepening economic turmoil and shared with us their latest proposals regarding AIG," Reid told reporters. "The Treasury and the Fed have promised to provide more details in the near future, which I believe must address the broader, underlying structural issues in the financial markets."
On Tuesday, shares of the insurance company swung violently as rumors of potential deals involving the government or private parties emerged and were dashed. By late Tuesday, its shares had closed down 20 percent _ and another 45 percent after hours. Still, no deal emerged.
The problems at AIG stemmed from its insurance of mortgage-backed securities and other risky debt against default. If AIG couldn't make good on its promise to pay back soured debt, investors feared the consequences would pose a greater threat to the U.S. financial system than this week's collapse of the investment bank Lehman Brothers.
The worries were triggered after Moody's Investor Service and Standard and Poor's lowered AIG's credit ratings, forcing AIG to seek more money for collateral against its insurance contracts. Without that money, AIG would have defaulted on its obligations and the buyers of its insurance _ such as banks and other financial companies _ would have found themselves without protection against losses on the debt they hold.
"It might not just bring down other financial institutions in the U.S. It could bring down overseas financial institutions," said Timothy Canova, a professor of international economic law at Chapman University School of Law. "If Lehman Brother's failure could help trigger AIG's going down, who knows who AIG's failure could trigger next."
New York-based AIG operates an insurance and financial services businesses ranging from property, casualty, auto and life insurance to annuity and investment services. Those traditional insurance operations are considered healthy and the National Association of Insurance Commissioners said "they are solvent and have the capability to pay claims."
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